【摘要】 选取滇东地区境内的11口水井作为研究对象,采用观测井所处地区年降雨量及次年水位谷值变化进行相关分析,提取水位年异常特征.发现出现异常井孔的台项比与当年或次年的M≥6地震有较好的对应关系.2002年以来,当超出正常动态范围内的异常井孔台项比大于0.27时,滇东及周边地区都有M≥6地震发生,对应率为80%(4/5).用此方法可以对滇东年度最大地震活动水平进行预测估计.更多还原

【Abstract】 Extract the annual anomaly characteristics of water level by analyzing the annual rainfall and next year’s water level changes of valley values in area of 11 observation wells which appears significant low level in eastern Yunnan.We found that it has a good corresponding relationship between the abnormal well ratio in anomalous year and the M≥6.0 earthquake in current year and next year,it will occure M≥6.0 earthquake in eastern Yunnan and the surrounding areas when the abnormal well ratio beyond the normal dynamic range above 0.27 since 2002,the corresponding rate is 80 %(4/5).It can be predict and estimate the annual maximum seismic activity level and seismic intensity by using this method.更多还原