【摘要】 为进一步了解热带森林动态变化与人类活动及气候变化之间的关系,利用MODIS遥感数据和ERA-Interim再分析气象数据,通过时间序列分析和相关性分析,得到2001～2013年东南亚地区11个国家的森林净初级生产力(NPP)时空变化情况及其与植被覆盖率(VCF)、温度、降水和光合有效辐射(PAR)的相关关系。结果表明:①东南亚地区森林NPP呈现由赤道向南北两极方向增加的趋势;②研究区大部分区域NPP呈减少趋势,NPP变化较剧烈的地区变异系数一般较大,生态系统的固碳能力不稳定;③研究区整体森林覆盖率较高(60%～80%),2001～2013年间大部分区域VCF呈增加趋势,部分地区VCF与NPP的偏相关系数较相关系数高,表明NPP受人类活动影响大;④东南亚地区温度、降水和PAR都较高,热带雨林气候国家较热带季风气候国家森林NPP与气候因子具有更好的相关性,一般与温度呈负相关,与降水和PAR呈正相关。更多还原

【Abstract】 To further understand the relationship between dynamic changes of tropical forest and human activities as well as climate changes,we use methods of time series analysis and correlation analysis to study the temporal and spatial changes of forest net primary productivity(NPP) and their correlation with tree coverage(VCF),temperature,precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR) in 11 countries in Southeast Asia from 2001 to 2013 based on MODIS remote sensing data and ERA-Interim reanalysis of meteorological data.The main conclusions are as follows:①the NPP in Southeast Asia is increasing from the equator to the north and the south;②NPP in most areas of the study area show a decreasing trend,and regions where have a more dramatic change of NPP usually have a higher coefficient of variation which showsa more unstable carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem;③the tree cover in study areais generally high(60%～80%) and most of thearea have an increasing trend,in addition,the partial correlation coefficient between VCF and NPP was higher than correlation coefficient,indicating that human activities have a greater impacton forest NPP;④the temperature,precipitation and PAR in study area are relatively high,and as for the correlation between NPP and meteorological factors,countries with tropical forest climate have a better correlation than countries with tropical monsoon climate,whose NPP is generally negatively correlated with the temperature and positively correlated with precipitation and PAR.更多还原