【摘要】 以巴东县新城区历史滑坡资料为例,借鉴地震灾害相关的预测理论与方法,对该区在未来5a,10a及50a不同时段内不同规模滑坡发生的超越概率进行了定量计算与预测.结果表明:巴东县新城区在未来5a,10a及50a时间段内,在不考虑人类防治工程的条件下,该区有可能发生规模在50×104 m3以上的中型滑坡、250×104 m3以上的大型滑坡、400×104 m3以上的大型滑坡的概率均达90%.研究成果为社会经济发展的防灾减灾需求灾害管理提供了科学依据,同时也为完善丰富滑坡灾害危险性评价理论的学科体系奠定了基础.更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of previous studies,the hazards survey data and earthquake hazard prediction theory were used,the exceeding probability is separately predicted when the hazards are in the future 5,10 and 50 years without considering the hazard control work as the sample of landslide hazards of Badong County.The predicted result shows the landslide hazard take place probably if man doesn’t control it.The Probability of the scale over 50×104 m3 is 90% in the next five years.The probability of the scale over 250 ×104 m3 is 90% in the next ten years.And the probability of the scale over 400 × 104 m3 is also 90% in the next fifty years.At the same time,research results provide a scientific basis for the disaster prevention and mitigation of disaster management during the socio-economic development,but also it laids the foundation when it riches landslide hazard evaluation theory.And it is also important to increase the level of the application and perfect the theories and methods by more deeply and widely studies.更多还原