【摘要】 针对震后快速反应与应急救援辅助决策的需要,在分析地震压埋人员影响因素的基础上,建立了基于倒塌率和在室率的压埋率预估模型.把在室率作为先验概率,为快速预估地震压埋率提供了条件.最后,以汶川地震灾区部分中小学为例,用建立的压埋率模型进行估计,并运用误差理论进行了精度分析.结果表明,该压埋率模型的预估精度达±0.2左右.更多还原

【Abstract】 To meet the demand of fast response and lifesaving assistant decision-making,a model for buried personnel probabilty in an earthquake was established based on collapsing ratio and in-building probabilty by analyzing factors influencing the buried personnel probabilty.In this model,the in-building probabilty is used as the prior probability.By taking elementary and middle schools in the disaster areas in the Wenchuan earthquake as examples,the situation of buried personnel was explained with the established model,and its precision was analyzed with the error theory.The analysis result shows that the precision of the established model is about ±0.2.更多还原