【摘要】 针对隧道穿越断层破碎带施工中塌方事故的预测,文章较系统地总结了隧道穿越断层中塌方事故的影响因素,并确定了主要影响因素;然后根据因素的层次性、模糊性,引入多级模糊评判方法、层次分析方法(AHP)等理论,建立了断层塌方预测的二级模糊综合评判模型和方法,以及指标权重及隶属函数的确定方法;通过工程实例对评判模型进行了验证分析,结果与实际情况较为吻合,说明隧道穿越断层破碎带塌方预测的多级模糊综合评判指标体系是有效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 To predict collapses caused by faults,the main contributing factors were selected by carefully analyzing all the influencing factors involved in the collapse of tunnels.In order to analyze the relationship between the influencing factors and fuzzification of collapse,a model of two-stage fuzzy synthetic judgment was established to classify the collapsing risk by using fuzzy mathematics and AHP theory,especially concerning how to achieve target weight and memberships.Finally,a tunnel construction was evaluated with the proposed method.The results agree well with the practical records,which show that the proposed method is effective in predicting collapses caused by faults.更多还原