【摘要】 东昆仑断裂是青藏高原北部现今仍在强烈活动的地震断裂之一, 该断裂的未来地震活动及其突发性粘滑错动是青藏铁路面临的重大工程地质问题。基于东昆仑断裂的运动学特征, 通过分别加入8m和3m的水平左旋位移, 模拟了东昆仑断裂未来地震活动时震中位于铁路线附近和远离铁路2种情形下的铁路变形效应。模拟结果表明: 震中位于铁路线附近时, 断裂南侧基岩和第四系均发生8m的左旋走滑位移, 而铁路附近的第四系水平位移明显减小, 铁轨和道床没有明显的断错, 表现为4~5m的连续左旋弯曲变形; 铁路东、西两侧形成NE向的张裂陷和NW向的地震鼓包,而道床和铁轨的垂直位移幅度较小。震中远离铁路时的变形效应与震中位于铁路线附近时的变形相似, 但位移幅度减小, 铁轨和道床形成1~2m的连续左旋弯曲变形。因此, 东昆仑断裂未来再次发生7~8级强烈地震时, 无论地震震中远离铁路还是在铁路附近, 其断裂的突发性粘滑错动都将导致青藏铁路的大变形和破坏。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Eastern Kunlun Fault (EKF) is one of the most active seismogenic faults in the northern Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Earthquake activities in the future or abrupt strike slip movement of the EKF will bring serious hazards to Qinghai Lhasa railway. On the basis of kinematics character of the EKF, this paper stimulates two deformation effects (the epicenter is located near the railway or far away it) when the earthquakes with 8 m and 3 m level left lateral displacement, occur respectively. The result shows that the southern bedrock and Quaternary of the EKF have 8 m left lateral strike slip displacement when epicenter is located near the railway. However, the level displacement of Quaternary near the railway is smaller, rail and groundsill show successive left lateral crooked deformation. It has just 4-5 m successive left lateral crooked deformation; Two sides of the railway cause the N E direction tensile opening and N W direction earthquake apophysis. Deformation effect is similar when the epicenter is located far away the railway, but the extent of displacement became smaller, and the rail and groundsill have the 1-2 m successive left lateral crooked deformation. Therefore, the great earthquake induced by EKF in the future will result in great deformation and destruction of Qinghai Lhasa railway whether the epicenter is located near the railway or not更多还原