【摘要】 关于房地产税能否抑制房价的研究普遍存在期限混淆和现实数据匮乏的难题,造成研究结论各不相同。本文采用家庭微观数据和地区宏观数据,区分房地产税推出后的短期和长期影响并分别进行了理论和实证分析,发现:其一,房地产税推行之初,将会带来存量房供给的一次性释放,短期内供需失衡将造成房价回调,回调幅度存在区域异质性,相比经济发达地区和经济落后地区,中等经济水平地区受影响的程度最大;其二,随着市场供需达到新的均衡,在房地产税平稳运行之后,地方政府将成为影响房价长期走势的关键因素,随着地方政府对房地产的财政依赖程度的进一步加强,反而会在长期推高房价水平。因此,房地产税改革的着眼点要放在调节公平和完善税制上,无论是长期还是短期,房地产税调控房价的功能均不符合中央的治理初衷和政策预期。更多还原

【Abstract】 It seems a common problem of duration specification and data access for most research on whether the real estate tax can curb the increasing house prices,which results in different conclusions.This paper combines family micro data and regional macro data and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis respectively basing on the short-term and long-term effects of the real estate tax after the introduction of the real estate tax.The findings are as follows:Firstly,at the beginning of the implementation,the real estate tax will bring a one-time supply surge.In the short term,the imbalance between supply and demand will result in price-cut of housing.Compared with the economically developed area and economically undeveloped area,the middle economic level areas are most significantly affected.Secondly,with the market supply and demand reaching a new balance and the real estate tax operating steadily,the local government will become the key factor for the long-term trend of housing price.As the local government relies more on land finance,it will push up the price level in the long run.Generally speaking,it’s suggested that the focus of real estate tax reform should be on regulating fairness and improving the tax system.Whether in the long run or in the short run,the function of real estate tax in regulating housing prices does not meet the central government’s original intention and policy expectations.更多还原