【摘要】 为能更及时地进行灾害前的预测以及开展防灾减灾工作,提高时空对称性方体系的准确性、完整性,对四川西部M_S≥6.3地震时空对称规律进行趋势判断,采用蝴蝶结构图、可公度法和可公度结构系以及相关机理,分析了四川西部M_S≥6.3地震时空对称性.选取1900年以来四川西部M_S≥6.3地震数据,进一步验证趋势判断结果.结果表明,1900年以来四川西部M_S≥6.3地震具有可公度性,2020年发震信号较强,并且发现约在2020年11月发震信号最强烈;在101°E,31°N附近地区发震的可能性较大;从太阳黑子活动对四川西部M_S≥6.3地震的影响来看,1900—2017年四川西部发生20次M_S≥6.3地震,主要发生在太阳黑子活动周期的双周期和下降阶段;从与地球自转的相关性来看,在地球自转变化率较大的年份占70%;朔月、上弦月前后发生地震次数占60%.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to make more timely prediction,disaster prevention and mitigation work,and improve the accuracy and integrity of space-time symmetry system,the trend of space-time symmetry law of M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan is judged.In this paper,the space-time symmetry of M_S≥6.3 earthquakes in western Sichuan is analyzed by using butterfly structure map,the method of proportionality,the system of measurable structure and the correlation mechanism.The seismic data of M_S≥6.3 in western Sichuan since 1900 are selected to further verify the results of trend judgment.The results show that:the M_S≥6.3 earthquake in the west of Sichuan since 1900 has the degree of acceptability,the earthquake signal in 2020 is stronger,and the downshock signal is strongest in November 2020.The possibility of earthquake occurring in the area near 101°E,31°N is greater.From the influence of sunspot activity on M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan,M_S≥6.3 earthquakes occurred in west Sichuan from 1900 to 2017,mainly occurred in the double period and descending stage of sunspot activity cycle;the correlation between the rotation of the earth and that of the earth,in the year in which the change rate of the earth’s rotation is large,reached 70%,and the number of earthquakes around the last quarter month is as high as 60%.更多还原