【摘要】 三峡库区发育的大量巨型古滑坡体由于特殊的地质条件往往成为移民新城址,采用近代力学和现代工程地质学有机结合的研究方法,在对其进行整体稳定性评价的基础上,通过对变形裂隙的力学性质、出露部位、扩展趋势以及出露次序的研究提出了巨型古滑坡体可能的复活模式及其时空预测预报原理.以巴东县城新址之一的黄土坡巨型古滑坡体为例,研究认为,在停止工程建设的前提下,该古滑坡体在无地震发生和采取有效坡体排水措施的情况下整体是稳定的,但在一些因素扰动情况下,黄土坡巨型古滑坡体已发育有5个"关键部位",其中II、III、V和V号"关键部位"处于孕育阶段,II号"关键部位"处于形成阶段,这些"关键部位"在采取有效坡体排水措施和及时加固情况下复活的可能性较小,黄土坡作为巴东新城址之一,安全是有保证的.更多还原

【Abstract】 A lot of giant ancient landslides developed in the Three Gorges Reservoir area sometimes become the locations of the new cities of immigrants as a result of specific geological conditions.A research method combining recent mechanics with modern engineering geology is used.Based on evaluation of whole stability,possible revived mode of giant ancient landslides and the theory of space-time forecast for the landslides is presented by researching mechanical property of deformation faults,exposed location,extended trend and exposed sequence.Taking the Huangtupo giant ancient landslide for example,which is one of new locations of Badong County seat,the research suggests that on the premise of stopping engineering construction this landslide is stable under these circumstances of having no earthquake and adopting effective measure for drainage of slope body.But under the circumstance of some disturbing factors,Huangtupo giant ancient landslide has developed five "key places",of which I,III,IV and V are in the incubation stage and II is in the formation stage.Revived probability of these places is less under these circumstances of adopting effective measures for drainage of slope body and reinforcement in time.Safety of Huangtupo which is one of new locations of Badong County is ensured.更多还原