【摘要】 采用灰色预测模型模拟南京市近年来的环境污染物排放的动态演进情况,应用结构分解分析法对工业污染物排放变化的成因进行了定量分析。结果表明,南京市工业废水、COD、SO₂排放量均呈现指数降低的趋势,但工业废气排放量呈现指数增加的趋势。将污染物排放变化的成因分为规模效应、结构效应和广义技术效应3类,结果显示,规模效应对污染物增长的贡献率最大,技术效应对于污染物排放（除工业废气外）的减少贡献率最大,结构效应对于污染物排放的减少也有一定的作用,但贡献率相对较小。从不同的时期来看,与"十一五"期间相比,"十二五"期间的工业污染物排放的规模效应稍有下降趋势,技术效应缩减趋势明显,甚至由负转正,结构效应呈现增长的趋势,但负效应仍然较弱。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the gray prediction model is used to simulate the dynamic evolution of environmental pollutant emission in Nanjing in recent years, and the cause of industrial pollutant emission change is quantitatively analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis method. The results show that the discharge of industrial wastewater, COD and SO₂ in Nanjing showed an exponential decreasing trend, but the industrial waste gas emissions were increasing exponentially. In this paper, the causes of pollutant emission change are divided into three categories: scale effect, structure effect and generalized technical effect. The results show that the scale effect has the largest contribution to the increase of pollutants, the technical effect has the largest contribution to the reduction of pollutant emissions（except industrial waste gas）, and the structure effect only has a little have impact on the reduction of pollutant emissions. Compared with the 11 th-year plan period, the scale effect of industrial pollutant emission in the 12 th-year plan period has a slightly decreased trend, but the technical effect decreased obviously, even from negative to positive, and the structural effect showed an increasing trend, but the negative effect was still weak.更多还原