【摘要】 由于运营时间短、客流量大、管理体系不健全等原因,国内地铁运营过程中存在诸多安全隐患,因拥挤造成踩踏事故的安全风险尤为突出。本文采用数据包络分析(DEA),构建地铁站风险控制有效性分析与评价的DEA模型,对地铁站拥挤踩踏风险进行定量分析。结合武汉地铁线上10个地铁车站的实际数据,从技术效率、规模效率和综合效率三个方面分析了拥挤踩踏风险控制效率;在此基础上,通过确定各决策单元松弛变量调整值,明确为达到风险控制的有效性应采取的改进策略,并利用松弛变量调整值与目标值间的差异辨识主要影响因素。采用DEA方法对地铁站拥挤踩踏事故风险分析结果与现状基本相符,可为判断地铁车站拥挤踩踏风险分析及制定改进策略提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many potential safety hazards exist in metro operation due to short operating time,big traffic,and incomplete management system and so on. The security risks caused by the crowded stampede accident are particularly acute. The data envelopment analysis( DEA) is used to quantitatively analysis the crowded stampede risk. According to the data of ten subway stations in Wuhan metro system, efficiency analysis in terms of technical efficiency, scale reward and comprehensive efficiency is concluded. Based on this,by determining each decision-making unit’s slack variable modifier,the improvement strategies are subsequently made,and the main factors are identified. Results indicate that the crowded stampede accident risk assessment is consistent with actual situation. Thus,DEA method can be used in determining the crowded stampede risk status in the station,as well as making improvement strategies.更多还原