【摘要】 基于遥感数据计算植被覆盖度(FVC),以沁水县为例,引入"源-汇"理论及最小累积阻力模型(MCR)评估植被状况并进行区域划分,依据区划结果提出具体管控措施。同时构建像元趋势外推模型,以2016年FVC为参照验证模型精度并对研究区未来植被覆盖度进行预测。结果表明模型预测结果与遥感数据反演结果差异较小,均方根误差(RMSE)0.098,相关系数(R2)0.804,说明像元趋势外推模型在FVC预测方面具有一定的适用性。沁水县2016年后植被状况以稳定和改善为主,在外界干扰因素稳定的情况下将达到稳定状态。研究将植被状况的静态格局、生态过程及动态趋势有机联合起来并制定合理的分区管控措施,为植被的有效保护及区域经济生态的协调发展提供科学参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study,the source-sink landscape theory and the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were applied to evaluate vegetation status and regional division in Qinshui County on the basis of Landsat Operational Land Imager data acquired in 2016,and targeted partition controls were put forward on the basis of the regionalization results.Then,apixel trend extrapolation model was introduced and applied to simulate status of vegetation in 2016,which was compared with the results created by dimidiate pixel model(DPM).Validations show that there were slight differences between DPM derived results and simulated images.Moreover,the pixel trend extrapolation model could lead to an RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)of 0.098 and an R2 of 0.804 for fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)in 2016.These results suggest that the pixel trend extrapolation model could yield a reasonable result.Additionally,prediction of dynamics of vegetation status indicates that the vegetation status is being stabilized and improved after 2016,and it will reach a stable state when external disturbance factors are stable.This study unites the static patterns,ecological processes,and dynamic trends of FVC and formulates reasonable regional control measures to provide references for the effective protection of vegetation and the coordinated development of regional economic ecology.更多还原