【摘要】 笔者从汶川大地震的成因出发,根据地震序列的类型、发生大地震的时间尺度和都江堰-江油断裂带对地震波的消减,以及成都平原特殊的地壳结构,认为发生大地震或大余震对成都平原的影响有限。在大地震后,随着地壳应力场的改变,可能在成都平原引发小地震,应加强对熊坡活动断裂等的监测,以及附近房地产等工程建设的管理,提高民众的防震意识。地震宏观前兆异常并不是都很明显。单一动物的异常行为,如蟾蜍或青蛙迁徙,不能构成预测地震的依据。大地震诱因是很复杂的,现阶段的科学技术还不能准确预测地震。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the light of the types of seismic sequences,time scales of earthquake inductions,waning of seismic waves in the Dujiangyan-Jiangyou fault and crustal structures of the Chengdu plain,the authors contend that the Wenchuan earthquake and subsequent aftershocks have a highly limited effect on the Chengdu plain due to the changes of the crustal stress fields.Particular attention should be drawn to the monitoring of the Xiongpo active fault and the management of construction sites.In general,the macroseismic premonitory anomalies are not always prone to be obviously observed.The anomalous habits of animals,e.g.the migration of toads and frogs,can’t be considered as the basis for earthquake forecast.The earthquake inductions remain unclear.Therefore it is impossible for us to predict earthquakes with accuracy at present.更多还原