【摘要】 针对风振作用下高层结构的全周期总费用展开研究,首先引入模糊综合评价理论建立结构失效损失费用的模糊评估模型,然后基于贝叶斯分布对结构风灾年发生概率和某一等级风灾年发生概率进行预测评估,并根据模糊综合评价方法对结构在不同风灾作用下的性能水准进行预测研究,最后针对10层和20层共10个高层结构采用已建模糊综合评价模型对其进行50个工况下的全寿命总费用预测评估。结果表明模糊综合评估模型能够考虑各种因素对结构全周期总费用的影响,评估结果与失效概率分析法具有很好的吻合性;基于贝叶斯分布的结构风灾危险性概率预测能够反映实际情况,预测结果随信息量的增多而更加准确;合理有效的结构设计应综合考虑初始结构造价和后期失效损失,以达到在结构设计寿命内总费用最小的目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Life-cycle costs of tall buildings in wind excitation are investigated. Fuzzy evaluation method for structural failure cost was firstly established based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory. Bayes distribution was adopted to predict the annual occurrence probability of wind disaster. The structural performance level in different grades of wind disasters was then estimated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally,the life-cycle costs of totally ten buildings with 10 stories or 20 stories were investigated in detail by the proposed method. The results show that the proposed evaluation method can consider the influence of different parameters to the life-cycle cost,such as peck acceleration,wind pressure and inter-story drift. The proposed evaluation method is found to be easier than traditional probability analysis method and corresponding calculation accuracy can be guaranteed reliably. The probabilities of wind disasters can be well predicted by the Bayes distribution and the prediction results become more accurate with known information. Initial costs and latter failure costs should be synthetically considered for reasonable structural design to ensure the minimum life-cycle cosst.更多还原