【摘要】 针对城市空间布局特征、地震及其次生灾害的特点和避震疏散能力评价的限定性、非线性等问题。从人、物、环境和灾害四个方面出发,综合考虑安全性、可达性和疏散有效性等原则,选取人口、建筑、绿地、道路、疏散场所和重大危险源等各类影响因素为评价指标,基于自主优势度概念和智能算法,提出城市避震疏散能力自主智能评价方法。该方法首先通过计算评价指标的绝对优势度和相对优势度,确定评价单元的评价指标优先顺序;其次利用蛙跳算法优化IOWA算子求解评价单元的位置加权向量和评价值向量,利用评价值的集结得到各评价单元的最优评价向量;最后实例计算表明,该方法评价结果充分反映受多种因素综合影响的城市避震疏散能力评价的客观实际情况,可接受程度较高,可为城市的避震疏散体系规划提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 considering the characteristics of urban space layout,earthquake and its secondary disasters,and the problems to restriction and nonlinearity of evacuation capacity evaluation,the factors such as population,buildings,green spaces,roads,seismic refuges for evacuation,major hazard installations are selected as evaluation indexes in aspects of people,objects,environment and disaster,based on the principles of security,reachability and evacuation validity. The self-determined intelligent evaluation method of urban earthquake evacuation capacity is proposed based on the concept of dominance and intelligent algorithms. Firstly,the prior order of the evaluation indexes is determined by calculating the absolute dominance degree and relative dominance degree. Secondly,the position weighted vector and the evaluation value vector of the evaluation object are solved by leapfrog algorithm optimizing IOWA operator. Finally,the optimal evaluation vector is obtained by the aggregated model of evacuation values. Example shows that the evaluation results reflect the reality of the urban earthquake evacuation affected by a variety of factors. It is highly acceptable,and provides the a basis for decision making for urban earthquake evacuation planning.更多还原