【摘要】 国家应对气候变化规划(2014—2020年)》提出到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放量要在2005年基础上减少40%～45%。为实现减排目标,我国政府采取了碳排放交易等一系列措施,而这些措施的基础就是合理进行碳排放权分配。基于区域协同减排,综合考虑公平性、支付性、世袭性三大原则,建立考虑各省市经济人效应的集中DEA模型,进行优化分配,实现各省效率最大化。模型选择人口、资本存量、能源消耗量作为投入指标,选择GDP和二氧化碳排放量作为产出指标。其中,资本存量折算为2005年价格下的资本存量,并对2020年各省资本存量进行拟合预测;GDP折算为2005年价格下的GDP,并根据各省市"十三五"规划纲要进行预测;能源消耗量通过拟合进行预测;二氧化碳排放量根据IPCC算法算出。然后,将优化结果与国家减排政策目标进行对比,算出差值β。结果显示,北京等省市的β值为零,说明优化结果与国家减排指标一致;黑龙江等省份的β值为正,说明优化结果比国家减排指标大,国家应给予它们更多的碳排放权;河北等省份的β值为负,说明优化结果比国家减排指标小,国家可以给予它们更少的碳排放权。总体来说,东部地区的减排工作不能放松,但西部省份的减排工作也不可掉以轻心。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has committed in its National Plan for Addressing Climate Change(2014-2020) to reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-45% by 2020 compared with the level of 2005.In order to achieve this emission reduction goal,the government has taken a series of measures including carbon emissions trading,and these measures are based on the rational allocation of carbon emissions rights.Considering the three principles of fairness,payment and heredity,a centralized DEA model,which considers the economic man effect of each province,was established based on regional coordinated emission reduction to optimize the allocation and maximize the efficiency of each province.This model selected population,capital stock and energy consumption as the input indicators and GDP and carbon dioxide emissions as the output indicators.Among them,the capital stock was translated into the capital stock under the 2005 price,and the capital stock of each province in 2020 was predicted by fitting.GDP was translated into the GDP under the 2005 price and predicted according to the 13 thFive-Year Plan of each province.Energy consumption was predicted by fitting,and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using IPCC algorithm.Then the optimization results were com-pared with the national policy objectives of emission reduction,and the difference β was calculated.It was found that the β value of some provinces and cities including Beijing was zero,indicating that the optimization results are consistent with the national objectives of emission reduction.The β value of some provinces including Heilongjiang was positive,indicating that the optimization results are worse than the national objectives of emission reduction,so the government should allocate more carbon emission rights to them.The β value of some provinces including Hebei was negative,indicating that the optimization results are better than the national objectives of emission reduction,so the government can allocate fewer carbon emission rights to them.In general,while stepping up its emission reduction efforts in eastern China,the government should never take the emission reduction work in western China lightly.更多还原