【摘要】 三维地质建模技术作为精细油藏描述和储层表征的重要组成部分,有效推动了油藏描述技术从定性到定量的转化,为开发后期井型井网的调整和剩余油分布规律的揭示提供了地质基础。以大庆油田T区块为研究对象,综合运用地震、地质、测井、取心资料,采用多步建模思路,建立油藏沉积微相模型和属性参数模型。最后针对储层参数不确定性问题的来源,运用随机建模技术和地质统计学等方法,分析储层不确定性参数的变化范围和规律,特别是针对变差函数中变程求取的不确定性所产生的油藏储量风险评价问题,引入概率储量,采用Monte Carlo方法,对各个参数的概率累计分布函数进行随机抽样,对地质储量分布概率进行统计和不确定性分析。研究表明,此方法基于对储量参数值范围的认识和评估,可以针对不同的独立变量的不确定性进行量化估计,从而计算油藏储量的概率分布,定量分析对模拟结果的影响,预测储层存在的风险和潜力,同时也为油藏数值模拟提供了一组优选的三维地质模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Technique of 3D geological modeling is one of the important parts of detailed reservoir description and characterization.It not only promotes the change of the reservoir description from quantitative to qualitative one,but also sets a geological foundation for adjusting well patterns and revealing the distribution of the remaining oil at later development stage.Taking block T of Daqing oilfield as the research object,models of sedimentary microfacies and attribute parameters of the oil reservoir are established according to the thinking of multistep modeling based on the data of seismic,geology,logging and coring.At last,variation range and rule of the reservoir uncertainty parameters are analyzed through stochastic modeling and geostatistics and other methods beginning from the source of the uncertainty of the reservoir parameters.In order to especially solve the problem of reserves risk assessment caused by the uncertainty of the variational function,probabilistic reserves are introduced.Monte Carlo method can be applied to distribution probabilistic statistic and uncertainty analysis of the oil initially in place after random sampling of cumulative probability distribution function of each parameter.Research shows that this method can estimate quantifying uncertainty of different independent variables,and calculate probability distribution of the oil reservoir reserves based on understanding and assessment on the value scope of the reserves parameters.This method can obtain the influence of the quantitative analysis on the simulation results,and predict reservoir risks and potential.It will provide a better 3D geological model for the reservoir numerical simulation.更多还原