【摘要】 为了计算海底管道在腐蚀作用下的可靠性,研究了海底管道在正常服役阶段可能受到的荷载作用,包括内压、温度、弯曲、覆土、地震作用和残余应力作用。基于Monte Carlo方法结合算例,计算了腐蚀海底管道在这些作用下的可靠性,得到了失效概率随时间的变化曲线。同时,研究了这6种作用对腐蚀海底管道的影响,描述了各种作用对腐蚀海底管道的影响程度。从影响腐蚀海底管道失效概率的角度,定义了参数灵敏性指标,对海底管道设计中经常涉及的参数如操作压力、管道半径、管壁厚度和管线埋设深度等进行了灵敏性分析,讨论了其变化对管线失效概率的影响,为实际工程中对腐蚀海底管道进行可靠性分析提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to calculate the reliability of corroded subsea pipeline,a corrosion model,effect of loads that count in the service period of subsea pipeline are studied,including pressure,temperature load,bending moment,overlaying soil effect,earthquake effect and residual stress effect.The reliability of corroded submarine pipe under all these effects is calculated with Monte Carlo method based on numerical example,so that the change of failure probability is obtained.Meanwhile,the effect of these loads on the failure probability of corroded subsea pipe is quantitatively analyzed.Sensitivity analysis is conducted for parameters that are usually used in design such as operational pressure,pipe radius,thickness of pipe wall and et al,in the view of failure probability.The analysis provides references for reliability calculation of corroded subsea pipeline in practice.更多还原