【摘要】 近年来,中国天然气储量产量均快速增长,结合全球天然气发展趋势,通过与美国天然气发展历程的对比和对中国天然气发展状况的预测,认为中国天然气产量将在2030年以前超过石油。通过对中国油气发展的历程分析,提出中国油气勘探的新思维,即:从研究生烃高峰期向生烃全过程扩展,从注重优良储层向多类型储层扩展,从勘探局部圈闭向大面积、全盆地扩展。在此基础上提出,天然气产量能够超过石油的最主要原因是自然界中天然气赋存量要远大于石油,非常规天然气大发展促进了勘探思维的大转变;精细三维地震和水平井分段压裂等核心技术的进步,开阔了勘探的视野。并提出生烃和保存条件是今后勘探中的最重要因素,勘探思维的转变必将带来资源量的大幅度提升和勘探领域的大大拓宽。更多还原

【Abstract】 Both China’s reserves and production of natural gas have been growing rapidly in recent years.It is forecasted that China will have more gas production than oil before 2030 with the consideration of global development trend of natural gas and in comparison with the natural gas development history of U.S.On the basis of analysis of China’s oil and gas development history,a new thinking about oil and gas exploration is proposed,that is,the hydrocarbon generation research is broaden from peak period to overall process,more attentions from good reservoir to multi-type reservoir and exploration from local traps to large area or total basin.Furthermore,the most important reason for gas production surpassing the oil is that the occurrence of natural gas is far more than that of oil in the nature,and the boom of unconventional natural gas promotes great change of exploration thinking;breakthroughs in fine three-dimensional seismic,horizontal well staged fracturing and other core technologies broaden the horizons of exploration.In addition,the paper proposes that hydrocarbon generation and conservation conditions are the most important factors in the future exploration and change of exploration thinking will certainly bring substantial increase of resources and great broadening of exploration field.更多还原