【摘要】 [目的]了解贵州省干湿状况变化规律,为农业生产及气象灾害风险预警提供科学依据。[方法]基于贵州省84个气象站点逐日观测数据,利用湿润指数,结合气候变化倾向率、Kring插值法、小波分析和相关分析法分析了1961—2014年贵州省干湿状况时空变化特征,并探究了其变化的影响因素。[结果]54a间贵州省全年、湿季、春季和秋季气候趋于干旱化,干季、夏季和冬季气候趋于湿润化。全年、干湿季,四季的湿润指数变化倾向率空间格局存在一定差异。全年、干湿季、四季存在2～4个不同时间尺度周期振荡,28a是全年、湿季、春季、夏季和秋季湿润指数变化的主要作用周期,17a是干季和冬季主要作用周期。降水量、平均相对湿度是影响贵州省湿润指数变化的主要因素,而平均风速、平均气温、平均水气压、日照时数对湿润指数变化影响较小。[结论]贵州省全年湿润指数下降将增加全省干旱风险,湿季和春季的湿润指数的下降不利于农作物的生长和成熟,夏季湿润指数的上升将增加农作物的洪涝风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objectives]The purpose of the paper was to understand characteristics of dry-wet condition variation in Guizhou Province and to provide scientific basis for agricultural production and the meteorological disaster risk warning.[Methods]The study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditionfrom 1961 to 2014 by the methods of humid index,inclination rate of climate change,Kringinterpolation,wavelet analysis and correlation analysis based on the daily observation data collected by 84 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province,and explored the potential influencing factors on dry-wet condition alteration.[Results]The climate tended to be drierduring a whole year,wet season,spring,and autumn,while the climatetended to be humid duringdry season,summer,and winter over past 54 years.There were prominent differences in spatial pattern of the change tendency of humid index between the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.Two to four different time scales periodic oscillation were noticed in the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.The main action cycle in annual,wet season,spring,summer and autumn was 28 years,while it was 17 years in dry season and winter.Precipitation and average relative humidity were determined as the main factors which influenced the variation of humid index in Guizhou Province,while the average wind speed,average temperature,average vapor pressure and sunshine duration demonstrated a relative small effect on humid index.[Conclusion]The decrease of annual humid index in Guizhou Province increase the drought risk in this region.The decrease of humid index in wet season and spring produce negative impact on the growth and maturity of crops,while the increase of humid index in summer.更多还原