【摘要】 采用南京市7个雨量观测站近25年的逐分钟雨量资料,提取了各站30min、60min、90min、120min、150min、180min历时的暴雨样本,统计了各站暴雨年发生次数变化并比较了空间差异性,采用模糊识别法识别了各暴雨样本的雨型,分析了各历时暴雨样本雨型组成结构,从雨峰数量和雨峰系数方面探究了雨峰的分布规律,并对比了城郊暴雨雨型特征差异性。结果表明,近25年来南京市暴雨发生次数呈增加趋势,暴雨时程分配更加集中;各历时暴雨中以雨型Ⅰ(单峰且雨峰在前部)、Ⅳ(暴雨过程均匀)发生频率较大,雨型发生比例空间差异较小;各站暴雨中约有38.6%~70.2%为单峰暴雨,不同站点暴雨雨峰位置分布类似;城区暴雨发生频次更高,且未来时期持续性强降水发生几率较大,郊区暴雨雨峰出现时间比城区更早。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the rainifall data at 7 rainfall stations in Nanjing City during 1992-2016,this paper extracted the rainstorm samples in the durations of 30 minutes,60 minutes,90 minutes,120 minutes,150 minutes and 180 minutes.Besides,the annual rainstorm frequencies were collected and the spatial difference was compared.Moreover,the patterns of rainstorm samples were investigated based on the rainfall peak quantity and rainfall peak coefficients by using the fuzzy recognition method.Then,the rainstorm pattern difference was compared between the urban and suburban areas.The results show that the the rainstorm frequency increased in the recent 25 years.The temporal distribution of rainstorms tends to concentrate in a short duration.The rainstorms of pattern No.I and No.IV occur more frequently than the other patterns,and the spatial variation of rainfall pattern is little.The single peak rainstorm accounts for about 38.6%-70.2% of rainstroms.The spatial distribution of all duration rainstorm is similar.The frequency of rainstorms is higher in urban areas,and the probability of continuous rainstorms is greater in the future.The rainstorm peaks in the suburban areas appear earlier than that in the urban areas.更多还原