【摘要】 掌握区域降水序列变化特征,对落实水资源管理工作、保障工农业生产具有重要意义。基于驻马店市1958～2011年逐月降水资料,借助线性回归方程法、距平分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、5年滑动均值法、Morlet小波分析法研究了驻马店市年、季节降水变化趋势、丰枯性及周期特征。结果表明:驻马店市年、春、夏、秋、冬季降水依次以-1.8mm/10a、-6.6mm/10a、13.1mm/10a、-10.8mm/10a、1.6mm/10a的倾向率呈不显著的线性变化;年、各季降水依次处于偏枯、偏丰、偏枯、偏枯和偏枯期;年降水主周期为22a,次周期为2a、4a和8a,春季降水主周期为9a,次周期为5a和18a,夏季降水主周期为23a,次周期为2a和7a,秋季降水主周期为17a,次周期为5a,冬季降水主周期为13a,次周期为2a和5a。总体上,驻马店市年、各季节降水有着明显趋势特征、丰枯性和周期特征,研究结果可为指导区域内水资源规划与管理工作提供一定的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is significant to understand the change characteristics of regional precipitation series for implementing water resources management and supporting industrial and agricultural production.The change trends,high flow and low flow characteristics and periodicity of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Zhumadian City were analyzed using the linear regression equation method,anomaly analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method,5-year sliding mean method and Morlet wavelet analysis method,based on the monthly precipitation data from 1958 to 2011.The results show that at present,the annual precipitation,spring precipitation,summer precipitation,autumn precipitation and winter precipitation are changing with non-distinctive linear tendency ratio of-1.8 mm/10 a,-6.6 mm/10 a,13.1 mm/10 a,-10.8 mm/10 a and 1.6 mm/10 a,and the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation of Zhumadian City are in the high flow and low flow periods.Meanwhile,the main period of annual precipitation is22 years and secondary periods of annual precipitation are 2 years,4 years and 8 years;the main periods of spring precipitation is9 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 18 years;the main period of summer precipitation is 23 years and the secondary period,are 2 years and 7 years;the main period of autumn precipitation is 17 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 13 years;and the main period of winter precipitation is 13 years and secondary period are 2 years and 15 years.更多还原