【摘要】 潮白河流域是北京市的重要供水来源,分析变化环境下流域内水资源的变化规律,对于维持生态系统稳定、保障经济社会发展具有重要意义。结合SWAT模型模拟了潮白河流域的水文循环过程,分析了流域内1960～2008年的蓝水绿水资源变化情况并对未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:潮白河流域的蓝水流与绿水流在研究期内都呈显著减少趋势,绿水储量呈增加趋势但不显著,它们的变化倾向率分别为-19.33mm·10a^-1、-6.92 mm·10a^-1与0.70 mm·10a^-1。未来趋势预测的结果表明这一变化趋势还将持续。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chaobai River basin is one of the crucial water supply sources for Beijing, and it is significant to study on the variation trend of water resources in the basin to maintain the stable ecology system and economic development. This paper simulated the hydrology cycle process in the basin combined with the SWAT model, and analyzed the variation of blue and green water resources in the basin during 1960-2008, and then made prediction for the future. The results indicate that the blue and green water flow were decreased significantly while the green water storage were increased slightly during the research period. The tendency rates of these hydrologic variables are-19.33 mm·10 a^-1,-6.92 mm·10 a^-1 and 0.70 mm·10 a^-1 respectively. The prediction results propose that the change trend of blue and green water resources would be continued.更多还原