【摘要】 [目的]研究鄂豫35个地市2000—2015年耕地资源利用变化影响因素的空间分异特征,为保护耕地资源及其可持续利用提供管理参考。[方法]基于鄂豫各地市耕地资源统计数据,分析耕地资源相对变化动态;采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,分析鄂豫地区耕地资源变化影响因素的空间差异特征,并侧重对残差的空间差异进行分析。[结果]①从空间格局看,耕地资源变化减少区主要分布在东部和西南部区域;耕地资源变化平衡区集中分布在中北部区域;耕地资源变化增加区大部分分布在东南部区域。②人口、固定资产投资与农业机械水平在空间上与耕地资源呈正相关;地区生产总值在空间上与耕地资源呈负相关。③残差高值区出现在耕地资源变化的平衡区和增加区,低值区分布在耕地资源变化的减少区和平衡区中相对变化较小的地区。[结论]保护耕地应根据影响因素的空间特征,在不同地区采取相应的适应性措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This paper studied the spatial characteristics of the influencing factors of cultivated land resource utilization at 35 prefecture-level cities in Hubei and He’nan Provinces from 2000 to 2015, in order toprovide reference for the protection and sustainable use of cultivated land resources. [Methods] Based on the statistical data of cultivated land resources at prefecture level in Hubei and He’nan Provinces, the relative changes of cultivated land resources were analyzed. Geographically weighted regression(GWR) model was adopted to analyze the spatial characteristics of socio-economic driving forces for the cultivated land resources changes, among which the analysis based on the residuals was emphasized. [Results] ① From the spatial pattern, the cultivated-land-reduction areas were mainly distributed in the eastern and southwestern regions. The cultivated-land-balance areas were concentrated in the central and northern regions. Most of the increased areas of cultivated land resources were distributed in the southeastern region. ② Cultivated land resources was positively correlated with local population, fixed assets investment and mechanization level of farming, and was negatively correlated with GDP. ③ The high residual values appeared in the cultivated-land-balanced area and the increased area. The low residual values were distributed in the cultivated-land-reduction area and the balanced area with smaller amplitude change. [Conclusion] Protecting cultivated land should adopt corresponding adaptive measures in different regions according to the spatial characteristics of the influencing factors.更多还原