【摘要】 生态弹性力、承载媒体支撑力、承载对象压力是生态承载力的三个重要要素,分析这些要素的变化特征是评价区域可持续发展状态的有效手段。从生态承载力的三个要素着手,构建淮北市生态承载力评价指标体系,采用均方差决策法确定评价指标权重,利用多元逐步回归分析进行因子筛选,定性分析2010—2016年间淮北市生态承载力变化状况。结果表明:淮北市在2010—2016年间,生态弹性力具有明显的上升趋势,指数由2010年的0.2570升高至2016年的0.9126,2012年以后一直处于中级到较高级的自我维持和调节状态;承载媒体支撑力整体稳步上升,指数由0.2592上升到0.7212,表明淮北市生态系统的支撑能力在2012年以后一直处于中级到高级的水平;承载对象压力指数的变化趋势与承载对象压力的变化趋势相反,表明承载对象的压力呈先增加后减少而后又迅速增加的趋势;生态承载力具有波动上升趋势,2012年后一直处于中到高的承载状态,表明淮北市生态承载能力有良好的发展趋势,但依赖煤炭开采的发展模式导致的资源耗费、环境污染等问题仍然制约着"自然—经济—社会"复合生态系统的协调发展,向生态型城市转型势在必行。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ecological resilience, supporting capacity of carrying media and pressure of carrying object are three important elements of ecological carrying capacity, and analyzing the characteristics of these elements is an effective means to evaluate the status of regional sustainable development. Based on the three elements of ecological carrying capacity, an evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City was constructed. Method of mean square deviation decision was used to weight the evaluation index, and multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to screen the factors. At last, the change of ecological carrying capacity situation of Huaibei City from 2010 to 2016 was qualitatively analyzed. The results showed that the ecological resilience of Huaibei City was increased significantly from 2010 to 2016, the index increased from 0.2570 in 2010 to 0.9126 in 2016, and 00000000 in a self-sustaining and adjusting state with intermediate to higher levels since 2012. The supporting capacity index of carrying media increased steadily, and the index increased from 0.2592 to 0.7212, indicating that the supporting capacity of ecosystem in Huaibei City had been in intermediate to higher level since 2012. The change trend of carrying object pressure index was contrary to the trend of carrying object, indicating that the carrying object pressure firstly increased then decreased and then increased rapidly again. The ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a rising trend of fluctuation, and the index was in intermediate to high carrying status after 2012,indicating that ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a good development trend. However, the problems of resource consumption and environmental pollution caused by the development mode of coal mining are still restricting the coordinated development of the "natural-economic-social" complex ecosystem. It is imperative to transform Huaibei City to an ecological city.更多还原