【摘要】 大气污染严重制约了我国经济的快速发展,为了加强对环境污染的治理,明确治理途径进而提高治理效率,故对北京市、天津市、石家庄市的空气质量指数(AQI)波动情况进行模拟及预测。首先利用OrnsteinUhlenbeck(O-U)均值回复模型设计AQI的模拟及预测模型;其次以3个城市2013年10月28日至2017年5月31日的AQI为样本,剔除异常值,用O-U模型进行季节性趋势及方差的分析,得到3个城市AQI不同程度季节性、周期性、随机性的变动趋势,并对模型的参数进行估计;最后得到3个城市AQI的预测方程,利用各方程对3个城市2017年6月份的AQI进行预测,其结果较为合理,较好地预测了AQI的变动趋势。利用O-U模型对AQI的模拟及预测可为政府相关部门制定政策提供一定的决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Air pollution has severely constrained the rapid economic development of our country, in order to strengthen the governance of environmental pollution, clarify the ways of governance and improve the efficiency of governance, the air quality index(AQI) fluctuations in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang are simulated and predicted. Firstly, using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(O-U) mean recovery model to design the AQI simulation and prediction model. Secondly, taking the AQI from October 28, 2013 to May 31, 2017 in three cities as samples, the outliers were excluded, and the O-U model for seasonal trends and variances was used to obtain the three cities varying degree of AQI in seasonal, periodic, and random changes, and the parameters of the model were estimated. Finally, the prediction equations of the three cities AQI were obtained, and the equations were used to predict the AQI of the three cities in June 2017. The results are reasonable and the change trend of AQI is well predicted. Using O-U model to simulate and forecast AQI can provide some reference for government departments to formulate policies.更多还原