【摘要】 采用1998—2016年的统计数据,首先运用脱钩理论研究了广东省旅游收入与废气排放量的耦合关系;其次运用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验以及方差分解,分析了广东省旅游收入与经济效应和生态效应之间的协整关系,从长期均衡关系和短期均衡关系分别求出经济效应和生态效应对广东省旅游收入的弹性系数。实证研究结果表明:(1)广东省旅游产业在"十二五"期间对经济的贡献率提升明显,后期潜力巨大,广东省国内旅游收入与废气排放量在未脱钩和相对脱钩之间交替循环;(2)广东省工业废水排放量和广东省GDP是广东省旅游收入的格兰杰原因。方差分解显示,生态效应和经济效应的冲击对旅游收入的波动贡献率能够达到55%左右。基于上述理论,生态和经济共同影响着广东省旅游业的发展,结合绿色发展背景提出相关建议,提倡绿色旅游。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using statistical data in 1998-2016, the coupling relationship of Guangdong’s tourism income and emissions has been studied by using decoupling theory firstly. Then using unit root test, cointegration analysis, error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition, the Guangdong Province’s tourism income and the cointegration relationship has been identified and analyzed between the economic effect and ecological effect, from the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term equilibrium relationship. The economic effect and ecological effect tourism income elasticity coefficient of empirical research results show that:(1) The tourism industry in Guangdong province during the"Twelfth Tive-year" economic contribution rate increase significantly, and the late potential is tremendous. The domestic tourism income and emission in Guangdong Province alternate between undecoupling and relative decoupling, and a strong decoupling state appeared in 2006 and 2012.(2) Industrial wastewater emissions of Guangdong province, and GDP is the granger reason of Guangdong tourism revenues. Variance decomposition shows that the impact of the ecological effect and economic effect of tourism revenue fluctuations contribution rate can reach 55%. Based on the above theory, ecological and economic effects jointly affect the development of tourism in Guangdong province, the paper put forward relevant suggestions in combination with the background of green development to advocate green tourism.更多还原