【摘要】 为了识别耕地动态变化特征与驱动机制,基于湖北省第二次土地调查以来的土地利用数据,从省域、县域与地块3个尺度,系统分析了2009—2016年湖北省耕地变化的数量和景观格局特征,运用回归分析定量识别了驱动耕地变化的主要因子。结果表明:(1)湖北省耕地面积呈现出不断下降的趋势,耕地与其他地类之间的转换关系复杂而频繁,城乡建设用地整治已成为耕地补充的重要来源;(2)湖北省大部分地区的耕地斑块密度都呈现出小幅增长的态势,耕地斑块平均规模有下降趋势,耕地斑块形状趋于复杂化,耕地破碎化程度趋于严重。(3) 2009—2016年,经济驱动因素对湖北省耕地变化的作用明显,尤以人均GDP的影响最为显著,而自然因素对耕地变化的影响作用相对较小。研究将为统筹耕地资源保护与社会经济发展动态关系,制定区域差异化的耕地资源保护策略提供决策思考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to analyze the dynamic change and its driving forces of cultivated land, the change features of cultivated land in quantity and landscape pattern from provincial, county, and land parcel levels in Hubei Province are analyzed, and the driving factors affecting the change of cultivated land are identified using the regression analysis. The research data are obtained from annual land-use data since the second land resource survey from 2009 to 2016. The results showed that there was a continuous quantity decline of cultivated land, which had a complex transfer relationship with other land-use types. Urban-rural construction land consolidation was an important way to increase cultivated land. Patch density of cultivated land showed a slight increase in most areas of Hubei Province, and the corresponding patch shape was more complex. The fragmentation of cultivated land was becoming more serious. The economic factors had the direct influence on cultivated land change, and the influence of per capital income was the most significant, whereas physical factors had less influence on the change. This study can provide important information for coordinating the dynamic relations between cultivated land protection and socioeconomic development, and formulating regional differentiation strategies for cultivated land protection.更多还原