【摘要】 为对比分析全国各地区耕地集约利用时空变化特征,探索耕地集约度变化关键节点,利用1985—2016年省际面板数据,构建包含17项指标的耕地集约利用评价指标体系。基于主成分分析法综合评价各研究区域耕地集约利用水平,运用动态变化模型分析耕地集约度变化差异。结果表明:(1)在国家尺度上,耕地集约度总体表现为"缓慢上升—迅速增加"的趋势;(2)在区域尺度上,耕地集约利用水平具有明显的分异特征,东部地区耕地集约度最高,中部地区次之,东北、西南和西北地区集约利用水平有待提升;(3)在省域尺度上,耕地集约度受自然地理条件和经济发展状况影响较大,区域差异明显;(4)随着耕地集约度增速变缓、生产要素集约度降低和国家政策调整,"产量—生态"平衡下的可持续集约化将是耕地利用的发展方向。因此,未来应关注耕地集约利用的生态环境效益及风险,更好地促进耕地可持续集约利用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of intensive cultivated land use and explore the key nodes of its change, the evaluation indexes system was established, which included 17 specific indicators using the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2016. The principal component analysis(PCA) was adopted to comprehensively evaluate the intensive utilization level of cultivated land, dynamic change model was used to explain variation differences. The results indicate that:(1) on the national scale, the degree of cultivated land intensive use shows a trend of ‘slow rise-rapid increase’;(2) on the regional scale, the intensive use level of cultivated land has obvious differentiation characteristics; cultivated land intensity is highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the northeast, southwest and northwestern regions need to be improved;(3) on the provincial scale, cultivated land intensity is greatly affected by the natural geographical conditions and economic development, and the regional differences are obvious;(4) with the slower growth of cultivated land intensification, the reduction of production factors and the adjustment of national policies, sustainable intensification on the basis of the balance of ‘production-ecology’ are the future development direction of cultivated land utilization. Therefore, the attention should be paid to the ecological and environmental benefits and risks of intensive cultivated land use in the future, so as to better promote the sustainable and intensive use of cultivated land.更多还原