【摘要】 可持续发展的标志是资源的永续利用和良好的生态环境。应用改进的生态足迹因子对长株潭地区2002—2014年的生态足迹及其可持续发展能力进行了定量评价,并构建灰色GM(1,1)模型进行了预测。结果表明:长株潭地区生态足迹由期初的2 120.50万hm~2逐年增加到期末的3 181.29万hm~2,同期可利用生态承载力由488.02万hm~2逐年增加到493.15万hm~2,生态赤字由-1 632.48万hm~2逐年持续增加到-2 688.14万hm~2;2002—2014年长株潭地区的万元GDP生态足迹和生态适度人口呈现逐渐下降的趋势,生态足迹利用效率呈现逐渐快速上升的趋势,生态可持续指数呈前期下降,后期平稳波动趋势;同时根据预测得到2026年人均生态赤字将上升到-2.340 6 hm~2。呼吁当地政府积极采取措施改善生态环境,以实现经济社会的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sign of sustainable development is the sustainable use of resources and a good ecological environment. In the present study, the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan City are calculated and analyzed from 2002 to 2014 by use of the improved ecological footprint factor, as well as its developed trend is predicted by the grey model. The results show that during 2002—2014, its ecological footprint increased from 2.120 50×10~7 hm~2 to 3.181 29×10~7 hm~2, the ecological carrying capacity gradually decreased from 4.880 2×10~6 hm~2 to 4.931 5×10~6 hm~2, while the ecological deficit per capita increased from-1.632 48×10~7 hm~2 in 2002 to-2.688 14×10~7 hm~2 in 2014; from 2002 to 2014, the ecological footprint and ecological population of 10,000-yuan in the Changzhutan region showed a gradual decline, and the ecological footprint utilization efficiency showed a gradual and rapid trend; the ecological sustainability index showed a decline during the early stages but stable fluctuations during the later stages, the per capita ecological deficit has been predicted to be risen up to-2.340 6 hm~2 in 2026. Urgent calls on the local government actively are to take measures to improve the ecological environment in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development.更多还原