【摘要】 基于江南丘陵及其周边地区69个气象站点1951—2013年的逐月降水量、月均气温、风速、日照百分率和相对湿度等数据,运用Penman-Monteith模型计算出了参考蒸散量和地表湿润指数,并结合地表湿润指数倾向率、M-K检验、ArcGIS反距离加权插值等方法,探讨了研究区地表干湿状况时空变化特征及敏感性分析。结果表明:近63 a,江南丘陵地区地表湿润指数在波动中呈现降低趋势,其10 a变化倾向率为-0.05,趋于干旱;累计距平可分为波动变化时期、高于多年平均地表湿润指数时期和低于多年平均地表湿润指数时期;地表湿润指数在1955年左右存在一个由湿变干的突变点。地表湿润指数的年代际和季节变化上,20世纪50年代最高,21世纪初最低,但不论季节还是年代际,春季最高,秋季最低。地表湿润指数的空间变化,南部和西部低,北部和东部高。地表湿润指数倾向率空间变化则是东南部较区域其他地方高,为正值,季节变化除夏季外,其他季节地表湿润指数倾向率都以负值为主。地表湿润指数与降水量、相对湿度的相关性较好,但在空间上各气象要素与地表湿润指数的季节相关性存在差异。此外,江南丘陵地区地表湿润指数与海拔存在较好的相关性,海拔越高地表湿润指数越大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, wind speed, sunshine percentage and relative humidity of 69 meteorological stations in Jiangnan hilly area and its surrounding areas from 1951 to 2013, Penman-Monteith model was used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration and the surface wetness index, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and sensitivity analysis of surface wet and dry conditions in the study area were discussed by combining with the tendency index of surface wettability index, M-K test and ArcGIS inverse distance weighted interpolation. The results showed that in the recent 63 years, the surface wetness index in the Jiangnan hilly presented the fluctuating decrease trend, and the 10 years tendency of variation tended to be-0.05, which tended to be dry. The accumulated anomalies could be divided into fluctuating periods, the index period and below the multi-year mean surface wetness index period; the surface wetness index around 1955 had the wet-dry mutation point. The interdecadal and seasonal variations of the surface wetness index were the highest in the 1950 s and the lowest in the early 21 st century, but the highest was in spring and the lowest was in autumn regardless of seasons or decadal periods. Spatial variability of surface wetness index was low in the south and west, high in the north and east. The spatial variability of the wetland index tended to be higher in the southeast than that in other parts of the region. The seasonally wetted tendencies of the surface wetness indices in all seasons were negative except for summer. The correlativity between surface wetness index and precipitation and relative humidity was better, but there were differences in the seasonal correlation between each meteorological factor and surface wetness index in space. In addition, there was a good correlation between the surface wetness index and the elevation in the Jiangnan hilly area. The higher the elevation is, the higher the wettability index of the surface is.更多还原