【摘要】 从20世纪50年代开始,我国先后在西部开展了交通沿线和典型区域的泥石流综合科学考察,进行了东川蒋家沟、波密古乡沟、武都火烧沟等10余处泥石流定点观测,在铁道科学研究院西南研究所和中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所建立了大型模拟实验室。针对山区公路、铁路、航道、矿山、城镇、农田、水电工程、风景区等建设与保护中的防灾减灾需求,研发了一系列泥石流监测和预警仪器,建立了单沟和区域泥石流预测预报模型,实现了泥石流预报的气象业务作业;建立了泥石流危险度评价和风险评价模型,提出了泥石流风险分析和风险管理方法;发展了岩土工程措施与生态工程措施相结合的泥石流综合治理技术;开发出城镇、道路、农田、矿山、风景区等泥石流防治模式,构建了系统的泥石流防治理论与技术,实施了大量的泥石流治理工程,取得了较好的减灾实效。我国山区社会经济的发展带来了人口密度与经济密度的增加,使得泥石流防治任务愈加艰巨,对泥石流减灾提出了更高的要求。为了做好泥石流防治工作,应该加强泥石流基础理论研究;发展基于泥石流形成理论的机制预报模式,提高泥石流预报精度;改进泥石流防治工程设计参数确定方法,完善灾害防治技术规程;加强灾害风险管理理论与方法研究,注重地震区泥石流风险预测;同时,认识泥石流的资源化属性,开发资源利用技术。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1950s China has devoted to the studies of debris flow,beginning with the investigation of debris flows along the major traffic lines and in the typical regions in the southwest,including the on site observations in the Jiangjiagou Gully,Yunnan;Guxiang Gully,Tibet;Huoshao Gully,Gansu;and other valleys.Large-scale laboratories were set up in the Southwest Institute of Railway Science and the Institute of Mountain Hazard and Environment.A set of monitoring equipments and alarming instruments have been developed to meet the need in mountain constructions and residential areas protection.Forecasting models have been proposed for individual valleys and regional debris flows,in cooperation with the weather forecast.Various models have been built for hazard and risk assessment, with the concepts of risk analysis and management.An integrated system incorporating geotechnical and botanical engineering has been developed and applied to the prevention projects in cities and towns,farmlands,mines,and scenery spots.Numerous engineering structures have been built.The potentiality of debris flow is increasing in China along with the mountainous development.This requires further researches in the fundamental theories,development of forecast models based on the genesis of debris flow,improvement of determination of engineering parameters,and optimization of the structure design.Furthermore,attentions should be paid to the risk analysis and forecast in the earthquake area,as well as the exploitation of the resources from debris flows.更多还原