【摘要】 本文基于结构突变的VEC模型,以政府2000年颁布的大气环境治理政策作为外生变量,分析了1982-2013年间我国碳排量与经济增长之间的关系,并通过非参数bootstrap方法对参数的置信区间重新构建。通过蒙特卡洛试验发现,基于传统渐进分布的Granger检验其结果会出现较为明显的统计功效的扭曲,反衬出使用bootstrap方法修正的必要性。结果显示:从长期看,我国碳排量与经济增长、政府投资、能源消耗及FDI存在着协整关系;碳排量是GDP增长的Granger原因,能源消耗与碳排量互为因果;而大气治理政策并不会对经济增长或碳排量产生影响。最后基于实证结果对我国低碳发展提出一些建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article aims to analyze the causal link between carbon emission and GDP of China from 1982 to 2013 by VEC model using bootstrap methodology. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that there is a huge size of distortion problem in the asymptotic Granger test and proves that the nonparametric bootstrap method may be more appropriate. Given the empirical results, there is a long-run relationship among the carbon emission, GDP, FDI and other variables. The study also proves that there is a unidirectional causality link between GDP and carbon emission. Moreover, the policy of atmospheric environment management seems no effect towards the economy and the amount of carbon emission.Therefore, the policy maker should evaluate the whole effect to make the final choice of low-carbon development.更多还原