【摘要】 开展环境变化对河川径流的定量影响评价分析,可为干旱区流域水资源的合理利用和生态预警提供重要决策依据。本文以新疆塔里木河干流为研究区,基于1960—2015年实测径流数据,采用累积量斜距变化比较法与线性回归方法分析环境变化对径流的影响程度。结果表明:塔里木河干流区域近60年间气候变化对径流的影响有所增加,人类活动是径流减少的主导因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quantitative impact assessment analysis of environmental changes on river runoff can provide important decision-making basis for rational utilization of water resources and ecological early warning in arid regions. Based on the measured runoff data from 1960 to 2015, this paper takes the mainstream of Tarim River in Xinjiang as the research area, and uses the cumulative skew variation comparison method and linear regression method to analyze the impact degree of environmental changes on runoff. The results show that the impact of climate change on runoff has increased in the main stream region of Tarim River in the past 60 years, and human activities are the leading factors for runoff reduction.更多还原