【摘要】 针对现有区间灰数Verhulst对整体呈现"S"形变化特性的连续区间灰数序列模拟误差较大的问题,通过分析构造序列的特征,提出一种改进的连续区间灰数Verhulst动态预测模型,即先分别构建连续区间的核序列和测度序列,继而建立核序列的灰色Verhulst预测模型和测度序列的灰色Verhulst预测模型,最后构建区间上下界预测模型。将此模型应用于青海玉树地震伤病员人数的预测,并与多种典型Verhulst预测模型进行对比,结果表明该模型预测精度更高,模拟效果更好。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view of the large error in the present of the " S" shape characteristics of continuous interval grey number sequence,through the analysis of the constructed sequence’s characteristics,a modified model based on continuous interval grey number Verhulst dynamic prediction is presented. Namely,continuum nuclear and measure sequences are constructed respectively at first. Then the prediction model of nuclear sequence and measure sequence are set up. Finally,an interval grey number Verhulst prediction model is built. In the example of predicting the number of patients in Yushu earthquake,the consequence shows that this modified model has higher practicability and accuracy than other grey Verhulst prediction models.更多还原