【摘要】 大规模地震发生后,在时间有限且信息缺乏的情况下,以大样本为建模基础构建的传统预测模型难以实现对应急救援物资的快速准确预测。基于此,以灰色建模理论为基础,提出并构建一种基于新陈代谢的GM(1,1)灰色动态预测模型,利用其"去掉老信息,利用新信息"的建模特性,分析并预测地震灾区死亡人数的动态变化,进而预测相应地应急救援物资需求。将该模型应用于预测我国青海玉树地震灾区物资需求的数量,取得了较好的预测效果。研究成果对丰富与完善灰色预测模型的理论体系,实现大规模地震灾区应急救援物资需求的预测,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the case of limited time and lack of information after large-scale earthquakes,a fast and accurate prediction of emergency relief supplies is hard to be achieved by traditional forecasting models based on large samples.The gray modeling theory proposes and constructs the metabolism of gray dynamic prediction model based on GM(1,1),according to its modeling features of removing the old information and using the new information,analysing and forecasting dynamic changes of the number of deaths in the earthquake-stricken areas,and thus predicting the corresponding emergency relief supplies needs.The model used to predict the quantity of the material needs of Yushu earthquake in Qinghai obtains a better prediction.Important theoretical significance and application value are provided for enriching and improving gray prediction model of the theoretical system,satisfying forecasting demand of emergency relief supplies in large-scale earthquake-stricken areas.更多还原