【摘要】 本文采用生存模型考察结构性改革对经济体由效率驱动向创新驱动阶段转变的影响。研究发现:转型概率曲线呈倒U型,拐点为进入效率驱动阶段后的19-20年,14-19年为实现阶段性转变的高峰期,此后转型概率由上升转为下降,意味着当经济体在效率驱动阶段停留过长时间后会加大转型的困难;贸易部门、行政管理体制与金融部门改革对于转型具有显著正效应,产品市场规制与劳动力市场改革的效应不确定;顺序效应检验发现两条改革路线,一是贸易部门-行政管理体制-金融改革的路线,二是贸易部门-产品市场规制-劳动力市场改革的路线,采取上述两条改革路线有助于尽快实现由效率驱动向创新驱动的转变。各经济体设计结构性改革路线时应借鉴国际经验并根据自身条件进行调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper applies survival analysis to empirically analyse the role of structural reforms in the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, and discuss whether certain reforms are more important than others when it comes to promoting the economic growth pattern transformation.The results show that the transition probability presents an inverted U-shape, with an turning point between 19 and 20 years. From 14 to 19 years, the transition probability changes from increasing to decreasing, which means that the transition becomes more difficult when the economy remains for too long in the efficiency-driven stage. The reform of the trade, institutional and financial sectors have a significantly positive effect on the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, but the structural reform effect of product and labour markets is ambiguous. The paper further presents evidence underpinning the view that economies that implement trade reform before institutional reform, which is performed before financial reform, and economies that implement trade reform before product-market reform, which is performed before labour market reform, achieve the transition more rapidly than those that follow the reverse sequence. In the course of the design process of the structural reform roadmap, economies must draw conclusions from the international experience and make adjustments based on their own circumstances.更多还原