【摘要】 应用Monte Carlo法计算供电系统的抗震可靠性概率,其关键步骤在于每次模拟时的网络连通性分析。针对以往两种算法——图论法和模糊数学法的缺点,提出了运用Warshall算法代替以往的算法来计算网络的连通性矩阵,并编制了相应的程序。该算法无论在速度还是效率上都远远超出其他算法。通过对实例的检验,证明了该算法的准确和高效。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a Monte Carlo method was applied to calculate the probability of seismic reliability of power-supply system.The key step of this method is the network connectivity analysis in each simulation.For the shortcomings of past two algorithms: graph theory and fuzzy mathematical methods,this paper proposes the use of Warshall algorithm instead of the previous algorithms to calculate the network connectivity matrix and compiles the corresponding program.The algorithm in terms of speed or efficiency goes far towards than other algorithms.Example proves that the algorithm is accurate and efficient.更多还原