【摘要】 在震后应急救援宏观决策中,地震压埋人员的实时伤亡状态是最重要的定量指标和参考依据。因此,以置信度区间为工具,对影响伤亡状态的参数即初始伤亡指数Co、囤陷环境S和体质综合指数B进行了区间分析,建立了实时伤亡状态模型,并以汶川地震灾区为例,对不同人员的伤亡状态进行了预估,预估值与实际情况的误差为10%左右,表明该模型可供震后应急救援工作参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to make decision of post-earthquake emergency rescue in time,the real-time casualties states of seismic buried personnel is the most important quantitative index and reference basis.So,by the way of the confidence interval,the parameters of influencing casualty states including origin casualty index、surroundings and body composite mass index were analyzed,then casualty state estimation model of seismic buried–personnel was set up.At last,taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example the model was used to analyze the casualty state of different buried people,whose error is about 10%.The results show that the model can provide a reference to rescue decision making after the earthquake.更多还原