【摘要】 基于风险理论,利用模糊数学方法,建立堰塞湖风险等级评价模型.该模型考虑堰塞体物质组成、堰塞体高度、库容、已有蓄水量以及风险人口、国民经济等6项风险指标,能够直观、快速地确定单座堰塞湖的风险等级,特别是对未蓄满库的堰塞湖有较好的适用性.以徐家坝堰塞湖为例,通过构造隶属函数确定评判矩阵R,根据改进的层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重集A,再由A和R线性变换得到综合决策向量B,最后根据最大隶属度原则确定堰塞湖的风险等级.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on risk theory,the model of risk assessment of dammed lake is established by the method of fuzzy mathematics.Taking into considering the six risk indicators—the material composition of the barrier,the height of the barrier,the storage capacity,the existing storage,the risk population and the national economy,the risk level of single-seat dammed lake can be determined visually and quickly,especially to the dammed lake not full of.Take the dammed lake at Xujiaba as an example,by constructing the membership function to determine the judgment matrix R,and improving the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index set A,the integrated decision-making vector B is obtained by linear transformation of A and R.Then the risk level can be determined according to the principle of maximum degree of membership.更多还原