【摘要】 为进行水上交通事故的预测与预警,分析将分形理论运用于水上交通事故预测计算的可行性.通过使用分形插值方法对离散的时间序列数据集进行处理,求取IFS迭代函数系及其吸引子,构建对于给定时间序列的预测模型.以我国水上交通事故近年来的统计数据为计算对象,预测未来几年内水上交通事故的发展趋势,验证该理论方法具有良好的宏观与微观预测性.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to predict and warn marine traffic accidents,the fractal theory is used in feasibility(analysis) on marine traffic accident predicting.The fractal interpolation is used to handle discrete data(aggregation) of temporal series,evaluate the IFS iteration function system and its attractors.A predicting model according to the given temporal series is built.Taking recent years’ statistical data of marine traffic(accidents) of our country as computation object,the quantity trend of marine traffic accidents in the coming years is (predicted.) It shows the method has good macroscopic and microscopic predictability.更多还原