【摘要】 基于地震作用对堤防风险因子不确定性的影响,将地震作用简化为对风险因子的不利扰动并用衰减函数来反映扰动的影响,以堤防安全的综合失效率和失事溃决洪水淹没范围来反映堤防整体风险,构建地震作用下堤防风险分析模型。以荆江大堤某典型断面在7度地震作用下为例,从风险角度对该断面漫顶溃堤风险、滑坡失稳风险、渗透破坏风险和土体液化风险进行了分析研究,并模拟了溃决洪水的淹没范围,所得结论可为堤防防洪减灾预警和决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 To consider the uncertainty of seismic effects on embankment risk factors,we simplified earthquake action into a risk factor of adverse disturbance and represented the disturbance by an attenuation function.Then we developed an analysis model of comprehensive risk under earthquake to include embankment failure risk,flooding risk and flooding area.Using this model,we analyzed the risks of flood overtopping,slope stability,seepage and soil liquefaction,and simulated the area submerged by embankment-breach flow,through a case study of Jingjiang dike’s typical section under earthquakes of seven degrees.This work is useful for design of flood warning system and emergency plans.更多还原