【摘要】 强震在高烈度的山区往往诱发大量的崩塌和滑坡,一到雨季不同规模的泥石流频频暴发,造成严重的灾害。以处于汶川地震XI度烈度区的213国道映秀到彻底关段的21条沟为例,探讨强震后如何对高烈度区的沟道泥石流的规模、频率、危险性作出尽快评价。为此,针对地震泥石流的特点和形成条件,确定影响泥石流规模和频率的评价因子;并从已有的相关图件和遥感影像中获取评价因子的特征值;用简单的数学方法将因子特征值分为五级,并归一化为0.0到1.0的标准值;用层次分析法计算出评价因子的权重;然后用常用或改进的评价模型,对21条沟泥石流的规模、频率、危险性分五级作出评价;最后用强震后3 a间各沟实际发生的泥石流规模和频率对评价结果进行检验,结果表明两者吻合度比较好。这种尽快的评价方法,可供其他山区强震后高烈度区的泥石流危险性评价参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tremendous landslides and collapses caused by intense earthquake usually induce numerous debris flows in rainy season.This study explores to make a quick assessment of frequency,magnitude,and danger of debris flow by a case study of the Yingxiu-Chediguan section of G213 highway hit by the Wenchuan earthquake.Key factors influencing the formation,magnitude,and frequency of debris flow are chosen and numerically determined through interpretation of remote sensing images and related DEM maps.The values are divided into five grades and normalized between 0 and 1.The weight for each factor is calculated by hierarchy analysis.Finally,the universal model is used to assess debris flows in 21 gullies.Comparison with the real occurrences indicates the assessment results are in good agreement.The assessment system can be further applied to debris flows in other regions of highintensity earthquake.更多还原