【摘要】 汶川地震诱发的次生泥石流灾害,已成为灾区防灾减灾工作的突出问题和灾后恢复重建的重要制约因素之一,泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害风险管理的核心基础技术。以都汶公路沿线的31条泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外考察、遥感图像的解译、查阅相关文献资料等手段获取研究区泥石流沟的基础数据,通过选取地质、地形、气象、水文指标,并利用主成分分析法对关键因子进行筛选和灰色系统模型进行权重的确定,建立泥石流危险性评价模型,计算得到每条沟的泥石流危险度值。评价结果表明:公路沿线31条泥石流沟处于不同泥石流危险等级:极高危险占23%,高危险占35%,中度危险占13%,轻度危险占29%;其中红椿沟、肖家沟、烧房沟等沟属于泥石流极高危险沟道,高家沟、牛圈沟等属于高度危险沟道,公路选线须采取避让或充分的防治对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The secondary disasters of debris flow induced by Wenchuan earthquake,has been a top problem and one of important restrict factors of recovery and reconstruction after the earthquake,debris flow hazard assessment is a foundation and core technology of debris flow risk management.In this paper,31 debris-flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway(abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway) were taken as research objects.Based on the field investigation,remote sensing image interpretation,consult the corresponding literature data and other means to take basic data of debris flow gully in this study area,by choosing geology,topography,climate,hydrology factors and using the principal component analysis method to screen the key factors and grey correlation analysis method to determine the weighing values,established the debris risk assessment model,got risk value of every valley through the calculation.The assessment results show that:31 debris flow gully along Du-Wen highway are most at risk,among them extremely high level of risk occupies 23%,high risk 35%,moderate risk 13%,slightly dangerous accounted for 29%;and Hongchun gully,Xiaojia gully and Shaofang gully belong to the extremely high risk gully,Niujuan and Gaojia gully belong to high risk,so the full countermeasures must be taken in traffic line designing.更多还原