【摘要】 综合考虑降水和气温对径流的影响,提出了一种新的径流变化归因分析方法——累积量斜率变化分析法,该方法原理简单,能客观地定量分离出气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献,进而以釜溪河流域为例,探讨了累积量斜率变化分析法的可行性和合理性。结果表明,釜溪河流域年径流序列存在1989、2002年两个突变点,可以此为界将序列划分基准期和影响期;气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率在1989～2001年期间分别为63.20%、36.80%,在2002～2014年期间分别为55.64%、44.36%。计算结果符合釜溪河流域的实际情况,可在流域径流变化归因分析中应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the influence of precipitation and temperature on runoff,a new runoff change attribution analysis method named slope change analysis method of cumulative quantity,was proposed in this paper.The principle of the proposed method was simple.It was an objective way to separate the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change quantitatively.Taking the Fuxi River Basin for an example,this study discussed the feasibility and rationality of the slope change analysis method of cumulative quantity.The results show that there are two breakingpoints as 1989 and 2002 in runoff series in the Fuxi River Basin,which can be used to divide the series into base period and impact period;The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are 63.20% and 36.80% during 1989-2001,and are 55.64% and 44.36% during 2002-2014,respectively;The calculation results are in line with the actual situation of the Fuxi River Basin,which can be applied to the analysis of attribution of runoff change in river basins.更多还原