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南水北调对汉江中游襄樊市水资源安全影响分析

Study on Impact of "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" on Water Resource Safety of Xiangfan City in Han River Middle Reaches

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【作者】 刘年丰吴华军周羽

【Author】 LIU Nian-feng~1WU Hua-jun~1ZHOU Yu~2 (1.Environmental Sci. & Eng. College, HUST., Wuhan 430074, China; 2.Xiangfan Meteorological Bureau, Xiangfan 441000, China)

【机构】 华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院襄樊市气象局 湖北武汉430074湖北武汉430074湖北襄樊441000

【摘要】 根据近期气候资料,分析襄樊干旱概率、降水量时空失衡、雨量变化趋势,计算得出襄樊水资源短缺的自然风险度为49.4%,其中严重自然风险度达28.5%。借鉴长期旱涝分析结果:中线工程供水、受水区干旱趋势、连旱及同旱概率等,分析水资源人为风险度为22.8%,说明中线工程可能影响襄樊水资源安全。

【Abstract】 This article analyzed the drought probability of Xiangfan area, the time and spatial disequilibrium and the variation tendency of the precipitation, the drought tendency of water-supply and water-receiving area of the middle-route project, the coincident and continual drought probability,etc. The natural risk probability of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area is 49.4%, including the serious natural risk probability 28.5%, and the artificial aggravating risk probability induced by transferring water is 23%. It demonstrated that under the increasing tendency of the natural risk of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area the South-to-North water transfer project will impact the water resource safety of Xiangfan area.

  • 【文献出处】 水电能源科学 ,Hydroelectric Energy , 编辑部邮箱 ,2004年03期
  • 【分类号】TV213
  • 【被引频次】8
  • 【下载频次】254
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