【摘要】 根据近期气候资料,分析襄樊干旱概率、降水量时空失衡、雨量变化趋势,计算得出襄樊水资源短缺的自然风险度为49.4%,其中严重自然风险度达28.5%。借鉴长期旱涝分析结果:中线工程供水、受水区干旱趋势、连旱及同旱概率等,分析水资源人为风险度为22.8%,说明中线工程可能影响襄樊水资源安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article analyzed the drought probability of Xiangfan area, the time and spatial disequilibrium and the variation tendency of the precipitation, the drought tendency of water-supply and water-receiving area of the middle-route project, the coincident and continual drought probability,etc. The natural risk probability of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area is 49.4%, including the serious natural risk probability 28.5%, and the artificial aggravating risk probability induced by transferring water is 23%. It demonstrated that under the increasing tendency of the natural risk of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area the South-to-North water transfer project will impact the water resource safety of Xiangfan area.更多还原