【摘要】 在有限理性假设下,构建"银行+农户"和"银行+合作社+农户"两种借贷关系的演化博弈模型,对比分析金融联结前后借贷双方的策略选择变化情况,探讨影响借贷双方决策选择的影响因素。结果显示:(1)农户的决策选择主要取决于抵押资产的金额和贷款所能获得的收益以及信用社的监管力度。(2)银行的"贷款"决策主要取决于农户选择"还款"策略的比率。(3)合作社使得银行以及农户之间的决策行为发生了积极的变化,其作用主要体现为提高农民的贷款金额、减轻贷款难度、保证银行的收益和减少银行的监管成本等。(4)通过提高农户归还贷款的初始概率y,增加银行的贷款收益r来增加银行贷款的可能性,同时提高抵押资产数额、套现比率以及合作社的惩罚来由此提高农民的还款意愿,使得农户和银行二者形成的系统向(银行贷款,农户还款)的决策状态发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the assumption of bounded rationality, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model of"bank + farmer" and "bank + cooperative + farmer".The comparative analysis analyzes the change of strategy choices of borrowers and lenders before and after financial integration and factors affecting the decision-making choices of both borrowers and lenders. The results show that:(1)farmers’ decision-making choices mainly depend on the amount of mortgage assets and the benefits that can be obtained from loans and the supervision of credit unions;(2)the "loan" decision of the bank mainly depends on the ratio of the farmers choosing the "repayment" strategy;(3)the cooperative made positive changes in the decision-making behavior between the bank and the farmers,and its main role is to increase the farmers’ loans,ease the difficulty of the loan,guarantee the bank’s income and reduce the supervision cost of the bank;(4)the possibility of bank loans can be increased by increasing the initial probability of the farmers to repay the’ loans and increasing the bank loan,and by increasing the amount of mortgage assets,the cash ratio and the penalty of the cooperatives,the repayment of farmers can be increased. The willingness makes the system formed by both farmers and banks develop towards the decision-making state of bank loans and fanner repayments.更多还原