【摘要】 构建动态随机一般均衡模型,分析零利率下限约束下供求冲击对于宏观经济波动的影响。结果显示,与不存在零利率下限约束的情况相比,当存在零利率下限约束时,"费雪效应"的存在会从两方面改变供求冲击对一国经济波动的影响:一是会改变对一些经济变量影响的方向;二是从影响的程度来看,零利率下限约束存续的期限越长经济变量波动的幅度越剧烈。随后可以分析中国零利率下限约束的特征事实,并可以应用时变参数方法分析2004年以来供求冲击下中国产出等经济变量的动态响应轨迹。分析结果基本证实了上述理论分析的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on a DSGE model, it is found that, comparing with the case of no zero lower bound( ZLB)problem,when existing the ZLB problem,the "Fisher effect" changes the effects of supply and demand shocks on economic fluctuation in two ways : one is the effect direction of some economic variables changes; the other is the effect degree which can be strengthened when the duration of ZLB lasts. With the SV-TVP-VAR model,the impulse response of China’s economic variables to supply and demand shocks since 2004 verifies the former theoretical analysis.更多还原