【摘要】 针对"5.12"汶川地震之后,斜坡结构受地震动松动破坏,在降雨或外届轻微的扰动下发生崩滑流等地质灾害的预测方法可靠性不高的问题,提出了一套基于概率模型的降雨激发区域地质灾害概率预警的方法。根据地震灾区本身的气象水文和地质环境特点,建立了降雨诱发灾害的概率模型和预警指标体系,以降雨概率和降雨量为基础,以研究区成都市地震灾区为例进行地质灾害预警模拟和结果检验,预警结果表明:需对彭州市中北部地区和都江堰市中部地区发出红色预警和橙色预警,这与研究区降雨触发地质灾害的实际情况相符。该方法提高了区域降雨型地质灾害的时间与空间预警的准确性,可为地震灾区震后的防灾减灾和灾害预警提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the reliability of geohazards prediction method after the Wenchuan Earthquake,the probability based prediction method for the regional rainfall-induced geohazards was proposed by the combination of the geohazards occurrence probability and the data of meteorology.The prediction system was established by the a-nalysis of geological environment and hydrology of study area.The method was applied to the earthquake hit region of Chengdu and the result was consistent with the actual situation in Dujiangyan and Pengzhou county,which indi-cated that the probability prediction method is capable of effectually improving geohazards time and space warning system.更多还原