【摘要】 "5.12"汶川地震诱发了大量的崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害,导致大面积坡面的岩土体松动,为泥石流的形成提供了丰富的固体物质来源。在泥石流形成的三大主控因素中,最重要因子已经由震前的短历时降雨量变为松散固体物质量了。由此,在同样的降雨激发下,同一流域将可能爆发比灾前更大规模的泥石流灾害。通过对历史地震后泥石流发展规律的类比分析,结合2008年雨季灾区泥石流活动状况,讨论地震灾区泥石流工程防治的最佳时机。经过初步分析认为,在极重灾区不宜在震后3年内实施大量的泥石流防治工程,而应在震后3~5年实施工程防治;在重灾区和一般灾区,可以在震后立即实施泥石流工程防治。目前地震灾区规划了大批泥石流工程防治项目,覆盖了极重灾区和重灾区。在极重灾区立即实施大批的泥石流防治工程,可能得不到预期的防治效果。建议汶川地震区位于极重灾区的泥石流防治项目宜在3~5年后实施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 has induced many secondary disasters,such as collapses,landslides,dammed lakes,and a great area of loose soils and rocks.The debris flows of larger scales may occur at the stimulus of rainstorms that would cause events of ordinary scales before the quake.Based on the analysis of historic debris flows following the earthquakes and the debris flows in 2008,the optimal opportunity of controlling the potential debris flows was considered.The results indicated that the control measures should be taken three to five years later in the central quake-hit areas.In other affected areas the engineering structures can be extensively made.It is suggested that the projects on the debris flows mitigation works in the most severe areas should be postponed up to three to five years.更多还原